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UID:www.mysite.com_1_6047
DTSTAMP:20210310T124720
DTSTART:20210427T143000Z
DTEND:20210427T153000Z
CATEGORIES:Kolloquium
SUMMARY:Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of the COVID-19 pandemic
DESCRIPTION:When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available\, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing\, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidemics. Based on an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory\, we compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible. \r\n\r\nIn this case\, the optimal control must meet competing requirements: First\, the minimization of disease-related deaths\, and\, second\, the establishment of a sufficient degree of natural immunity at the end of the measures\, in order to exclude a second wave. Moreover\, the socio-economic costs of the intervention shall be kept at a minimum. The numerically computed optimal control strategy is a single-intervention scenario that goes beyond heuristically motivated interventions and simple “flattening of the curve”. Careful analysis of the computed control strategy reveals\, however\, that the obtained solution is in fact a tightrope walk close to the stability boundary of the system\, where socio-economic costs and the risk of a new outbreak must be constantly balanced against one another. The model system is calibrated to reproduce the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.
LOCATION:Zoom
ORGANIZER;CN="Matthias Ehrhardt, Birgit Jacob":
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